Since the beginning of this year, the quantity and price of the cement industry have decreased, and the benefits have fallen sharply. In the context of the decline in the peak season from March to May, the traditional sales season in the fourth quarter finally had some "fluctuations".
The reporter learned from a number of markets that since mid -September, the price of cement prices is intensively raised at intensive in Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Hunan and other regions, and the increase is between 15 yuan and 50 yuan per ton.
According to the data provided by Tianfeng Securities, the national cement market price was 366 yuan/ton one week before the festival, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton month -on -month. The price increase area is mainly Shanghai, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Henan. There is no price reduction area.
Regarding the cause of rising prices, many people in the cement industry said that due to the increase in the price of raw materials such as coal, the cost of production of cement has increased, and the price of cement has falle to a lower level, and the willingness to promote the price of cement companies is stronger. In addition, the demand side is still weak, but it has slowly improved the situation from the previous month. In addition, the implementation of peak production in many places has eased the contradiction between supply and demand.
Multiple rounds of price adjustment in some areas
On September 28, the major brand enterprises in Hunan market raised the price of cement for each specification of 20 yuan to 30 yuan/ton. Sales staff of a cement company in the area told reporters, "This is the second round of price increases in the Hunan region, and it has been raised on September 20."
According to the person, the new peak production plan has been implemented in Hunan in September. On average, the annual peak production ranges from 10-15 days, and the inventory pressure has begun to alleviate. Two rounds of cumulative increase of 40 yuan to 50 yuan per ton, and some of the lowest inventory scenes appeared in line.
The rise in prices has spread to multiple regions, of which the price of cement prices in North China has risen sharply. Sales staff of a cement enterprise in the area introduced to reporters that before the festival, cement companies in Tangshan announced that the price of clinkers was increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of cement rose at the same time, and the Beijing -Tianjin area was raised. "At present, companies in Beijing are 60 % or 70 %, reaching 80 %."
In addition, Henan has increased the production of peaks for 15 days from September 26. The price of two rounds of cement enterprises has a price of 30 yuan/ton each, with a cumulative extent 60 yuan/ton. The price of cement will increase by 20 yuan/ton from September 28 in Jiangxi. In October, it is planned to implement the peak production for 7 days.
Generally speaking, the market price increase has a strong atmosphere. As for the reasons for the rise in prices, the above -mentioned markets have stated that although the downstream demand is still weak in entering the traditional peak season, due to the rise in the price of raw material materials, the production of peaks is superimposed, and the national cement prices have maintained upward.
On October 8th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price of important means of production in late September, and the prices of coal products in the country rose sharply compared to mid -September. For example, the price of coking coal is 2216.7 yuan/ton in this period, an increase of 9.0%from the previous period. The prices of Shanxi Da Haru, Shanxi Youzhu, and Datong Hybrid have increased by more than 8%. Ordinary mixed coal rose 7.1%, coke rose 6.0%, smoke -free coal rose 5.4 %.
It is expected to form a profit bottom in the third quarter
The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. As a key factor in driving cement demand, the latest news of the Ministry of Transportation, from January to August this year, the investment in fixed assets of highway waterway and water roads was 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.0%year-on-year. In addition, since the end of July, domestic market favorable policies have been launched in many places, allowing the market to optimize the future demand performance of important building materials such as upstream cement.
So, will the next trend of the cement market be as promising as market?
Recently, during the survey of the accepted agency, the Taski Group said that the introduction of the real estate regulation and control optimization policy requires a certain amount of time to take effect. According to the current relevant statistics, real estate is still at the bottom adjustment stage, and there are fewer new projects. Slowly, the national cement demand showed weak recovery, and the overall demand for cement demand decreased. However, "the next four quarters are the traditional cement sales season in the southern region, we predict that the cement sales situation will improve."
"It is expected to form a profit of cement enterprises in the third quarter." Tianfeng Securities stated in the latest research report that the current price level is expected to be difficult to make profits, and the price of the price is relatively limited. Low, the profit of the third quarter of the year -on -year angle is expected to be flat, and it is expected to achieve growth in the fourth quarter. If the demand will rise next year, the elasticity of cement price is expected to exceed expectations.
Setting the main business of hedging in advance
After three consecutive years of profit standing at a historical high, cement companies ushered in performance diving in 2022. The industry's profit level fell by 60 % year -on -year, which directly reduced 100 billion yuan, reaching a level of about 68 billion yuan. In the first half of this year, the performance of many cement listed companies still declined to varying degrees.
The reporter noticed that despite the pressure of the main business, cement listed companies have shown better growth in the extension of the industrial chain. Many cement companies have laid out new business growth points such as aggregate, environmental protection, and photovoltaic in advance to hedge the decline in the cement business.
It can also be seen from the performance of the first half of this year that the contribution of the profit of aggregate and other businesses has gradually appeared. On October 9th, Jinyu Group disclosed the records of investor relations activities that the cement demand in the market where the company's market was located in the first half of this year has not changed much, and the proportion of infrastructure is the largest, accounting for about 50%; Essence In the first half of the year, the company's aggregate sales were 15.95 million tons, an increase of 15.41%year -on -year.
At the performance briefing meeting, Tianshan Co., Ltd. stated that in the first half of this year, the company's aggregate sales increased by 25.53%year -on -year, and the contribution of profits increased. Some aggregate capacity is under construction, which will become the company's profit growth point.
Huaxin Cement said that in the first half of this year, its aggregate sales were 50.5124 million tons, an increase of 103.30%year -on -year; concrete sales were 10.9497 million cubic meters, an increase of 82.31%year -on -year. The rapid expansion of aggregate and concrete sectors is expected to become the company's second growth curve.
In addition, in terms of emerging industry expansion, Tache Group actively promotes the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects and cement kiln collaborative disposal solid waste project construction. At the same time, the Taspie Group said that the company is currently planning to develop biotechnology projects and strive to cultivate new profit growth points.
Conch cement has been seeking profit growth in the field of new energy. Li Qunfeng, general manager of the company, previously said that the company has been studying the new energy industry chain. The current projects are mainly power stations and energy storage. As the upstream development of the industrial chain continues to develop, the company is also layout of photovoltaic glass.
来源：证券时报·e公司
