It can be seen that the improvement of demand is a short -term change affected by special time. "Golden Nine Silver Ten" cannot be regarded as long -term expectations, and insufficient demand will still be the normal state; when the national production capacity is excessive, Heilongjiang naturally cannot be exempted. In the visible future, the cement industry in Heilongjiang and even the entire northeast may become more and more difficult.
First, the contradiction between production needs is serious.
For example, the 2022 China Cement Cliny Power List shows that the production capacity of Heilongjiang's clinker is 2011.9 million tons. Calculated by grinding 1.3 tons of cement by 1 ton of clinker. Assuming the production capacity of Heilongjiang's clinker is fully active, the 2019 million tons of clinker can be grinded to more than 26 million tons of cement, and the demand for the year of the Heilongjiang annual cement should not be only 1,00077 About eight million tons, the difference is nearly 10 million tons. Of course, the contradiction between production needs is not unique to Heilongjiang or the Northeast, but a universal problem of nationwide.
In order to cope with the predicament of the contradiction between production demand, the peak production has played a significant role in the past few years, but this is based on the relatively stable or even increased demand for the annual demand in the past few years. Peak production also gives many spaces that should have been eliminated, which should have been eliminated. Some backward production capacity replaces the "borrowing corpse soul" through production capacity, which has also further intensified the contradiction between production demand.
The second is the growth of the population, which has increased the downward pressure on demand.
All investment and construction must be based on people, and no one in a region does not have the value of investment and construction. As an old industrial zone in the Northeast, the population is in a net outflow due to the single industrial structure and environmental pollution.
According to Qipu data, in 2020, the total population of more than 98 million people in the three northeast provinces decreased by about 11 million people ten years ago. The speed of negative growth was significantly faster than the national average. With the decline in the total population, problems accompanied by urbanization, acceleration of population aging, and decline in population birth rate have also led to a significant insufficient stamina for economic development.
If it is famous for low housing prices in the country, it has too little population, poor environment, and insufficient demand. The house is "cheap as cabbage". Real estate supports cement demand is already "weak". In addition, the infrastructure construction of the Northeast for the past decade can be regarded as "Yin Eating Grain". Most of the transportation projects such as high -speed rail, highways, and airports have been relatively complete, and the infrastructure has a small space in the future. Real estate and infrastructure double "pull gates", the future cement demand in the Northeast in the Northeast is difficult to speak and optimistic.
The third is the rainbow effect of big cities and developed regions.
Recently, the housing market policies across the country have warm wind frequency. In September, Tianjin, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Xi'an and other cities have canceled or adjusted the original housing purchase restriction policy. Nanjing, Wuhan, Jinan, Hefei and other cities The purchase restriction policy is completely canceled, and basically they are strong second -tier cities. And it is foreseeable that this trend of restrictions on purchases will be further expanded.
In the past, due to the existence of restrictions on purchases, coupled with the low value of cities with low development standards, the demand for investment demand and improving the demand for improving house purchases in some third -tier and fourth -tier cities with good economic strength was not met; Second -tier cities with substantial investment value will naturally become the "fragrant citron" of households in different places.
In addition, when the choice of consumption expands, the area where the housing is located has become a more critical element. Education, medical care and other second -tier cities with richer third -tier cities than third -tier cities have more employment opportunities and broader development prospects, and they are more attractive to talents. Local residence may receive higher -level education, which will further accelerate the flow of population from relatively backward areas to developed regions.
The weaker the weak, the stronger the strong. Northeast China, especially Heilongjiang and Jilin, will be more difficult to resist the rainbow absorption effects of strong second -tier cities. It is basically an inevitable trend in the development momentum of the development trend of the population to the east. The real estate market in second -tier cities will also boost the needs of new demand, and then support the demand for cement; the construction demand for urban renewal and development will be more concentrated in economic developed areas. Cement demand in the region will be more stable.
On the other hand, the problem of population loss and limited economic growth momentum cannot be resolved. The cement market may only be "under the river". As mentioned above, "all investment and construction must be based on people, and no one in a region has no value of investment and construction." Although the production capacity of Northeast is not large in the country, the small market is facing a situation of continuing to shrink, and it is difficult to continue to accommodate all current capacity.
Cement companies in the northeast should actively transform at this moment to seek profit business other than cement; or continue to save energy to reduce costs, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve quality. For most small and medium -sized enterprises, the exit of the factory may be a better choice. However, under the current situation of poor markets, who wants to take over?
However, the future of the Northeast is not confused. In September this year, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the Central Committee, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission inspected in Heilongjiang, and emphasized that it is necessary to firmly grasp the strategic positioning in the overall national development situation, twist the primary task to promote high -quality development, implement the Party Central Committee about the Party Central Committee about Promote the decision -making deployment of comprehensive rejuvenation in the Northeast, make up the strengths, and make up the strengths, ecological advantages, scientific research advantages, industrial advantages, and location advantages into new advantages of development of new kinetic energy, and strive to create a new situation of high -quality development. Under the attention of the Party Central Committee and the government, the transformation process in the Northeast will definitely accelerate, and will eventually get rid of the "mud" and achieve industrial revitalization. At that time, the Northeast cement market may also usher in vitality again.